Don't Build the Future Around Today's Winners

I've been around technology long enough to see a lot of winners. I've also been around long enough to see many of them disappear.

There was a time when WordPerfect was the word processor. Lotus 1-2-3 dominated spreadsheets. Companies built systems, trained employees, developed processes, and made technology decisions around products that seemed almost impossible to displace.

Until they weren't.

I've watched this happen for decades. I came into the technology world when computing was moving from mainframes toward the desktop. I watched personal computers transform business. Then came networking, databases, the internet, websites, search engines, ecommerce, mobile, cloud computing, social platforms, and now artificial intelligence.

Every generation produces its winners, and every generation has people who believe those winners will remain on top. They rarely do.

Now We're Doing It With AI

Today the names are ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and a growing list of AI platforms and applications. They're remarkable technologies, but I'm hesitant when someone tells me to build a business strategy around any one of them.

I've seen this movie before.

Some of today's AI leaders will probably become enormous companies. Some will be acquired. Some will merge. Some will become infrastructure we barely think about. Some may eventually join WordPerfect and Lotus 1-2-3 on the list of technologies that once seemed unbeatable.

There will almost certainly be companies five years from now that we haven't even heard of today.

That's why I think businesses are asking the wrong question: Which AI platform should we bet on?

Maybe we shouldn't be betting on one at all.

Build Around the Need

Technology changes much faster than human needs.

People still need to find businesses, and businesses still need to find customers. People need information and recommendations. They need to communicate, establish trust, and make decisions. Ultimately, somebody needs to buy something from somebody else.

The technology we use to do that has changed dramatically. The underlying needs haven't changed nearly as much. That's the distinction I think we're losing in the current rush toward AI.

Don't build your business around the technology of the moment. Build it around what you and your customers are trying to accomplish.

Then use the best technology available to make that easier.

I've Watched This Strategy Work Before

One of the more interesting lessons from the early internet wasn't simply watching new companies emerge. It was watching existing business models adapt to a completely different way of connecting buyers and sellers.

Business directories are a good example. The old Yellow Pages solved a simple problem: I need a plumber, restaurant, accountant, or electrician. Where do I find one?

The internet changed how that question was answered. The directory moved online. Businesses established digital listings. Those basic listings created an opportunity for businesses to pay for greater visibility and additional services. Then search became increasingly important.

The technology changed. The business need didn't.

Businesses still needed to be found.

That's the part worth remembering.

AI Is a Feature, Not the Destination

I think we're going to make a similar mistake with AI if we're not careful. We're starting to talk about AI as though AI itself is the product.  For most businesses, it isn't. 

Customers don't wake up wanting artificial intelligence. They want something accomplished. They want an answer, a reservation, the right product, or a solution to a problem. Sometimes they want to talk to somebody. Ultimately, they want to make a purchase without unnecessary friction.

AI may make every one of those things easier. Good. That's where it belongs. The customer shouldn't have to understand the machinery underneath the experience. Right?

The Lesson I Keep Coming Back To

I understand why business owners feel pressure right now. Everyone is being told to develop an AI strategy, pick an AI platform, automate everything, learn the latest tools, and don't get left behind.

But after watching technology cycles for decades, I think there is a more important question:

What will your customers still need after today's technology has been replaced? Build around that.

Use AI aggressively where it makes things better, faster, easier, or less expensive. But don't confuse today's technology leader with your long-term business strategy.

Build it around the needs that will still exist when today's winners are gone.